July 5, 2022

jdean-law

Politics and lawyers

Local Election Update: Labour Failing to Make Up Ground Outside London

Local Election Update: Labour Failing to Make Up Ground Outside London




Community Election Update: Labour Failing to Make Up Floor Outdoors London


At the time of likely to pixel, 146 of 200 councils have declared their benefits. The Tories are down by 260 seats, Labour is up by 158, and the LibDems are up by 143. The Tories’ losses at existing really do not present a splitting migraine for Boris, given that utilizing their a great deal hyped MRP modelling Electoral Calculus – not CCHQ as the Labour-supporting press ended up declaring – predicted an 800 seat reduction. A 500 seat loss would have been truly terrible, 800 disastrous.

The critical place, however, is in which the Tories’ vote losses are concentrated. Labour has attained 68 seats in London, with the Tories dropping 83, and the LibDems attaining 15. Outside London it’s a unique tale: Labour has received 114 seats, while the LibDems have picked up 126 and the Greens 45. This is a better day for the LibDems and the Greens in England than it is for Labour.

To Guido’s surprise the LibDems are creating significant inroads in the South East and South West. This will normally scare old-school residence county Tories who anxiety getting rid of their seats, nevertheless should really try to remember it’s vintage protest vote things. Guido reckons CCHQ is much happier to see Tory votes quickly siphoned off to protest parties like the LibDems and Greens than Labour, as it suggests they’re not offered on Starmer and hence perhaps retrievable at the upcoming election. Sill plenty to participate in for as we head into the evening – Guido won’t be foolish adequate to make any predictions…



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